Lula's Crucial Test In several places of his vast work, but principally in his book «Brazil, the interrupted construction» [Brasil, la construcción interrumpida] (1993), Celso Furtado said: «We are a people with an extraordinary multisided culture... But we lack the experience of crucial tests, such as those lived by other peoples whose very survival was threatened at one time» (p. 35). Facing crucial tests defines the destiny of a country and strengthens its basic identity. I believe the present political and moral crisis presents a crucial test for the future of Brazil. But it is also crucial for President Lula's Government. Juarez Guimaraes, political science professor at Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais and member of the Perseu Abramo Foundation, shows this with special acuteness in his book «A Tightrope Walker's Hope: the Lula Government in Times of Transition» [Esperanza Equilibrista: el Gobierno de Lula en Tiempos de Transicion. 2004.] This book seeks to place the Lula government in the context of Brazil's political history, and with specifics of sociological, cultural and political thinking that cannot be presented here, it shows the challenges the Lula government faces and the strategies used to resolve them. To do the government justice, he uses a fertile interpretative category, the one called «transition of paradigm.» From what to what is that transition? From a neoliberal privatizing state, inserted as a minor player in a world-project, to a republic that puts social issues as its central concern, encourages micro-credits for consumers and small investors, and most importantly, organizes programs such as, «Zero Hunger» and «Family Basket», together with other social initiatives. This project faces two structural problems that make transition difficult: a clientele democracy and an economy with poor sustainability and with very high interest rates. Considering this complex and even dramatic picture, how does one proceed with a successful transition? We have to take into account the nature of all transitions, that have continuity on one side, and novelty on the other. The Lula government has opted for this strategy: for the sake of continuity, the macroeconomic project with all its neoliberal contradictions will be maintained, to gain the confidence of the international financial system and to guarantee economic stability. The novelty is the introduction of substantive social policies, like the «Family basket», the incentives to the small and medium businesses, to family agriculture and other such projects. But it so happens that the inherited public debt is of such magnitude that it requires a primary surplus of close to 5%. This demands a drastic restriction of State expenditures, because, otherwise, the debt would never stop growing. Here is the impasse: the economic project does not fit with the social project. It is so voracious that it makes impossible the transition towards the social. It only produces a «blocked transition.» The popular bases feel the discontinuity and become disappointed by the lack of change. That is why they ask for a change of the macroeconomy. Perhaps the present political crisis will force Lula to become closer to the social movements. To make a pact with them to prevent a possible destitution, he needs to alleviate the neoliberal character of the economy and seek an economic transition that will support a social policy that cares for the demands for change of the movements and at the same time lets him stay in power.
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